Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
